:Product: 20010320RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9373 (S07W71) produced two M-class events during the period. The first was a M1/0f at 20/0218 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and a partial halo CME. The second from this region was an M1/1f at 20/1507 UTC. Region 9384 (N14W74) produced a M1/0f at 20/0333 UTC. Region 9390 (N14E73) produced a M1/0f at 20/1424 UTC. Three new regions were numbered today as Region 9388 (N14W49), 9389 (S12E75), and 9390 (N14E73). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm conditions. A fairly long period of southward turning IMF Bz was observed by the ACE spacecraft. This activity is likely the result of the CME which occurred late on 15 March. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active as a result of the recent CME occurrences. III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar Class M 60/50/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Mar 153 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 050/065 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 015/025-025/025-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/50/25 Minor storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/60/30 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05