:Product: 20010323RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several small, isolated, C-class events occurred during the period. The largest was an optically uncorrelated C5 flare at 22/2300 UTC. One new region was numbered: 9393 (N20E65). Region 9393 is a large, magnetically complex spot group and should be capable of producing C and M-class flares as it continues to rotate onto the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active periods on the first day of the period. III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar Class M 60/60/60 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Mar 180 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 021/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05