:Product: 20010323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several small, isolated,
C-class events occurred during the period. The largest was an
optically uncorrelated C5 flare at 22/2300 UTC. One new region was
numbered: 9393 (N20E65). Region 9393 is a large, magnetically
complex spot group and should be capable of producing C and M-class
flares as it continues to rotate onto the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods on the first day of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 180
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  180/180/180
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 158
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  021/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  015/015-012/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05