:Product: 20010324RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Overall, activity increased considerably during the period. Two M-class events were reported. An M1/Sf flare with an accompanying Type II radio sweep occurred at 24/0138 UTC from Region 9376 (S13W90) as it was rotating over the western limb. Region 9390 (N15E19) produced a long duration M1/2F event at 24/1955 UTC. Other active regions of note were 9389 (S13E26), 9393 (N20E54), and 9397 (S09E76). Four new regions were numbered: 9394 (N09E48), 9395 (S12E63), 9396 (S06W04), and 9397. The Pentiction 10.7 cm Flux reading of 219 was flare enhanced by the M1/2F long duration event. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9389, 9390, and 9393 could produce isolated major event level flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Mar 219 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 012/012-010/012-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01