:Product: 20010325RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Three M-class and two C9 events occurred during the period. The largest events were an M2/2N from Region 9393 (N20E39) and an M2/1N from new Region 9401 (N22E55). Overall, activity increased noticeably during the reporting period. Five new regions were numbered: 9398 (N20W10), 9399 (S30W09), 9400 (N11E20), 9401 (N22E55), and 9402 (N17E15). Several different regions produced activity during the day and it appears that the sun is entering into a highly active period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a good chance of isolated event class events being produced from several of the different active regions. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with a single, isolated, mid-latitude period of active conditions occurring at 25/0900-1200 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, barring an Earth-directed CME. Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Mar 217 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 006/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 010/018-005/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01