:Product: 20010326RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events occurred during the period. Region 9401 (N22E43) produced an M2/1N event at 26/0239Z and Region 9393 (N18E27) produced an M2/1F event at 26/1326Z. Several other C-class events occurred. Significant growth was observed in Region 9393 and the region now has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Growth was also observed in Regions 9390 (N15W08), 9396 (S06W32), and 9401. These numerous regions above have been producing the bulk of activity during the period. New region 9403 (S13E62) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with the increasing chance of an X-class event occurring. Continued M-class events are expected from any one of several different active regions now on the sun. Region 9393 displays the best potential for producing an X-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active conditions. III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar Class M 75/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Mar 264 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 225/230/235 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 160 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 008/008-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01