:Product: 20010402RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Apr 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. A pair of Class X flares occurred at 02/1004 UTC and 02/1058 UTC. The first was in Region 9393, now at N16W69. The second was likely in Region 9393 but it may have been near the southeast limb. A coronal mass ejection extending 180 degrees in longitude along the west limb occurred more-or-less in conjunction with the x-ray events. Region 9393 is little changed in appearance as it begins to rotate from view over the limb although its apparent area is decreasing. Sunspots have rotated into view at S21E58 (Region 9414) but so far the spots appear to be simply structured. As the region becomes more visible, further information about its structure will be available. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. The possibility of major flares remains high in Region 9393. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been mostly active. A very small proton enhancement of >10 MeV and >100 MeV particles occurred beginning at about 02/1000 UTC. Fluxes have become constant at less than event thresholds. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The possibility remains of a proton event if further major events occur in Region 9393 III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr Class M 80/75/75 Class X 35/30/30 Proton 30/30/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Apr 228 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 220/210/200 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 166 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 026/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 030/025-035/040-025/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 28/28/35 Minor storm 18/15/12 Major-severe storm 08/08/08 B. High Latitudes Active 28/28/28 Minor storm 18/25/20 Major-severe storm 08/08/08