:Product: 20010426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 9433 (N17W25)
produced an M7/2b flare at 26/1312 UTC.  This event had an
associated 360 sfu 10 cm radio burst, Type II and Type IV radio
sweeps, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by the
SOHO/LASCO spacecraft.  The region continues to maintain a complex
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  Three new regions were
numbered today as Region 9440 (N07E18), 9441 (N08E51), and 9442
(N28E59).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Isolated X-class flares are possible from Region
9433.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 27 and 28 April.  Minor storm
conditions are possible on 29 April as a result of the CME activity
observed today.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     30/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Apr 196
Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr  205/210/210
90 Day Mean        26 Apr 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  010/010-010/010-040/040
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/40
Major-severe storm    01/01/30
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/40
Major-severe storm    01/01/30