:Product: 20010426RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Apr 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 9433 (N17W25) produced an M7/2b flare at 26/1312 UTC. This event had an associated 360 sfu 10 cm radio burst, Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, and a full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by the SOHO/LASCO spacecraft. The region continues to maintain a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered today as Region 9440 (N07E18), 9441 (N08E51), and 9442 (N28E59). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares are possible from Region 9433. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 27 and 28 April. Minor storm conditions are possible on 29 April as a result of the CME activity observed today. III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr Class M 80/80/80 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 30/20/20 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Apr 196 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 167 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 010/010-010/010-040/040 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor storm 05/05/40 Major-severe storm 01/01/30 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 05/05/40 Major-severe storm 01/01/30