:Product: 20010502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. This was an M1 x-ray flare that occurred at
02/0040 UTC. This event coincided with an eruptive prominence on the
northwest limb, most likely originating from Region 9433 (N19W90+).
Regions 9441 (N07W29) and 9445 (N25E23) were both active during the
period, producing C-class x-ray events and optical flares. Region
9445 also showed significant growth in the number of sunspots today
(28 to 40). Two new regions were numbered: 9448 (N22E60) and 9449
(S15E69).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9441 and 9445 are capable of producing isolated
M-class events during the forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods possible, due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 176
Predicted   03 May-05 May  175/170/165
90 Day Mean        02 May 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  010/015-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01