:Product: 20010502RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. This was an M1 x-ray flare that occurred at 02/0040 UTC. This event coincided with an eruptive prominence on the northwest limb, most likely originating from Region 9433 (N19W90+). Regions 9441 (N07W29) and 9445 (N25E23) were both active during the period, producing C-class x-ray events and optical flares. Region 9445 also showed significant growth in the number of sunspots today (28 to 40). Two new regions were numbered: 9448 (N22E60) and 9449 (S15E69). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9441 and 9445 are capable of producing isolated M-class events during the forecast period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible, due to favorably positioned coronal holes. III. Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 May 176 Predicted 03 May-05 May 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 02 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 010/015-015/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01