:Product: 20010503RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest events were a C2/Sf event at 03/0405 UTC from Region 9445 (N25E10) and a C2/Sf at 03/1602 UTC from Region 9447 (N12W27). These two regions produced most of the solar activity during the period. Region 9447 grew in size and spot count today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be continue to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active conditions due to favorably positioned coronal holes. III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May Class M 30/25/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 May 172 Predicted 04 May-06 May 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 03 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 015/015-012/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01