:Product: 20010504RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a long-duration C4/Sf from Region 9447 (N14W41). Region 9447 grew in area and spot count today, as well as developing into a more complex Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. The only other active region of note was 9445 (N25W04) which produced some optical subflares. One region was numbered today: 9450 (S03W07). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the forecast period due to favorably positioned coronal holes. III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 May 176 Predicted 05 May-07 May 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 04 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 012/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01