:Product: 20010505RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9445 (N24W16) produced an M1/1f flare at 0856 UTC. This was the sole M-class event during this mostly uneventful day. The region also generated a C6/Sf flare a few hours later, attaining maximum at 1820 UTC. There are currently eight spotted regions now visible, with 9445 and 9447 (N12W55) the most dominant. The limbs were quiet. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to low to moderate. Region 9445 may produce occasional M-class events during the forecast interval. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field should be unsettled for the next three days. There is a chance for brief periods of active conditions due to a high speed solar wind stream from an ill-defined coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere. III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 May 161 Predicted 06 May-08 May 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 05 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 010/008-010/008-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05