:Product: 20010507RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. X-ray flare activity consisted of mid-sized C-class events from Region 9445 (S25W42). The region possesses bright plage and a modest degree of magnetic complexity. The most spectacular events of the day came from behind the west limb. The LASCO coronagraph saw a dramatic cme moving westward at about 07/1000 UTC. Somewhat later, another cme was launched in the same approximate trajectory. This second event may have been related to flare activity in Region 9445 (C3/Sf at 1220 UTC). Elsewhere, one new region was numbered, 9452 (S09E67). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9445 may generate an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A prolonged period of southward IMF, from approximately 06/2200-07/0800 UTC, spawned active to minor storm conditions at mid and high latitudes. More normal conditions have occurred lately, with quiet to unsettled conditions prevailing. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/1915 UTC, and is still in progress. This activity is thought to be a result of the behind the limb CME seen to occur near 07/1000 UTC. The maximum greater than 10 MeV flux of this soft event is 15 pfu at 07/2100 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. This current disturbance should weaken through the interval. The greater than 10 MeV protons should slowly subside. III. Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 30/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 May 138 Predicted 08 May-10 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 07 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 010/014-010/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/30 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05