:Product: 20010508RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9445 (N24W54), still the most active spot group visible, produced a C9/1f flare at 0055 UTC, the day's largest event. The region retains a modest degree of magnetic complexity. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9445 retains the potential to produce a small M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC, reached a maximum of 30 pfu at 08/0755 UTC. Those fluxes are now slowly declining to more normal levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 10/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 129 Predicted 09 May-11 May 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 08 May 168 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 010/008-005/007-005/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05