:Product: 20010512RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Several C-class events were observed. The largest of these was a C5/Sf flare at 1210 UTC from Region 9454 (N13E46). Region 9454 is currently the largest sunspot group on the disk and has some magnetic complexity. Region 9455 (S16E03) grew steadily during the past 24 hours and produced the majority of today's C-class events. Newly assigned Region 9456 (N06W04) emerged on the disk during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days from any of regions 9454, 9455, or 9456. Of these, Region 9455 appears to be the best candidate for continued flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the past 24 hours. Unsettled to active levels predominated most of the day, but the period from 0900-1500Z saw minor storm levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during the second and third days. III. Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 May 138 Predicted 13 May-15 May 140/142/144 90 Day Mean 12 May 167 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 025/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 015/015-012/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/05