:Product: 20010522RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 May 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity of note was observed. Region 9463 (N10E18), the largest active region on the visible disk, is still undergoing some changes but exhibits moderate complexity at best. Two new regions were numbered today - 9469 (N08W71) and 9470 (S15W19). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 9463 is the only region showing potential for an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at mostly moderate levels this period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Active periods are possible due to high speed coronal hole effects and a possible glancing blow from a CME observed on 20 May. III. Event Probabilities 23 May-25 May Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 May 152 Predicted 23 May-25 May 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 22 May 168 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 015/018-010/012-010/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05