:Product: 20010522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No significant activity of
note was observed. Region 9463 (N10E18), the largest active region
on the visible disk, is still undergoing some changes but exhibits
moderate complexity at best. Two new regions were numbered today -
9469 (N08W71) and 9470 (S15W19).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9463 is the only region showing potential for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at mostly moderate levels this period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Active periods are possible due to
high speed coronal hole effects and a possible glancing blow from a
CME observed on 20 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 152
Predicted   23 May-25 May  160/160/165
90 Day Mean        22 May 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  015/018-010/012-010/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05