:Product: 20010524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9468 (N05E25)
produced an M1/1n flare at 24/1944Z. Minor centimetric bursts, a
Type II radio sweep (620 km/s), and a CME also accompanied this
flare. Region 9468 is a moderately complex group covering 150
millionths of white light area and produced frequent brightness
fluctuations throughout the period. A pair of long duration C1
events were observed at 24/0706Z and 24/0901Z, and were likely
associated with an impressive CME originating just behind the NE
limb. A weak Type II sweep was observed at 24/1712Z, associated with
a filament eruption and faint CME near the west limb. The largest
region on the visible disk - Region 9463 remains stable in a simple
beta configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class event is possible from Regions 9463
and 9468.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnmetic field was quiet to unsettled. We have been under the
influence of a high speed coronal hole stream for almost 40 hours,
but the geomagnetic response so far has been weak.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
through days one and two. Active to minor storm conditions are
possible on day three in response to the CME at 24/1955Z.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 170
Predicted   25 May-27 May  165/170/170
90 Day Mean        24 May 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  008/008-008/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10