:Product: 20010602RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9484 (S06E22) produced several optical flares, the largest being a C1.3/Sf at 02/0019 UTC. This region has exhibited growth in size, spot count and plage intensity, and is currently in a Dao/beta-gamma configuration. Two new regions were numbered today: 9486 (N28W08) and 9487 (N20E75). New Region 9486 has emerged rapidly in a Dao/beta configuration, but has not yet produced any notable flare activity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. A chance for isolated moderate flare activity exists for Regions 9484 and 9486. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. The onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole have been evident over the last 24 hours. Minor storm conditions were observed during 02/0000-0300 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible through June 3, while coronal hole effects remain in progress. Activity is expected to taper off through June 4 and 5, to mainly quiet to unsettled conditions. III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun Class M 25/30/35 Class X 01/01/05 Proton 01/01/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jun 134 Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 137/140/145 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 020/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 012/015-012/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01