:Product: 20010603RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. The largest event was a C2/Sf from Region 9484 (S06E08) at 03/2011 UTC. This region continues to maintain some magnetic complexity and slowly increase in size and spot count, currently in a Dai/beta-gamma configuration. Other regions that exhibited activity today include 9486 (N28W22), and newly numbered 9488 (S18E61). Region 9488 was split from Region 9485 (S23E46) based on a better view of the region as it rotates onto the visible disk, and is presently the second largest region after 9487 (N19E60), which also grew in size and spot count today, but produced no activity of note. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the period, but with a chance for isolated moderate flare activity possible for the developing regions noted in Section 1A above. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active period observed at higher latitudes during 03/1500-1800 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects have exhibited a weakening trend throughout the day, but remain in progress. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun Class M 30/35/35 Class X 01/05/05 Proton 01/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jun 145 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 008/008-008/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01