:Product: 20010604RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of 210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC. This region also produced several lesser flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration. Another event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633 UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was observed, along with a small, nearby filament disappearance. Some enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event, indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not expected to result in a proton event. CME activity was observed in association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9488 is a likely source of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable of producing moderate flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days of the period. There is a chance for development of coronal hole effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day three. III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jun 154 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 006/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 005/008-005/008-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01