:Product: 20010605RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events occurred during the period. An M1/Sf from Region 9484 (S05W20) at 04/2259 UTC, and an M2/2n from Region 9488 (S20E33) at 05/0451 UTC. Region 9488 also produced an C9/Sn at 05/1421 UTC. Several CME's were noted by the LASCO instrument during the period, but none appear earth-directed. Region 9489 (N17E52) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on the second and third day of the period due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Jun 153 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 168 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 004/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 008/008-012/010-012/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01