:Product: 20010609RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Overall, solar activity has increased since the previous period, as several regions produced C-class events and optical sub-flares. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C7 at 08/2324 UTC. Region 9494 (S08W44) has shown rapid growth over the last 24 hours and is currently a 21 spot Dao group with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. There are currently eleven spot groups on the disk. Region 9496 (N09W36) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. Region 9496 is capable of producing isolated M-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active period occurring at 09/0600-0900 and 1800-2100 UTC. The increased geomagnetic activity appears to be the result of interaction with a high-speed coronal hole stream. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the period due to a coronal hole stream. III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jun 177 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 180/185/185 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 010/010-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01