:Product: 20010610RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares were observed. Region 9494 (S08W57) produced most of the activity including the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf at 10/0104Z. This region developed more size and complexity during the last 24 hours, with a weak delta configuration becoming obvious by mid-period. Slow growth was also observed in Region 9489 (N18W17) which produced isolated C-class flares in a beta-gamma configuration. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Region 9487 (N21W30) and Region 9493 (N06E25). New regions 9497 (S10E27) and 9498 (N22E58) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9494 has a good chance of producing an M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. These disturbed conditions are a result of a high speed stream that is now tapering off. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are likely at high latitudes. III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jun 163 Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 019/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 012/012-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01