:Product: 20010610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares were
observed. Region 9494 (S08W57) produced most of the activity
including the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf at 10/0104Z.
This region developed more size and complexity during the last 24
hours, with a weak delta configuration becoming obvious by
mid-period. Slow growth was also observed in Region 9489 (N18W17)
which produced isolated C-class flares in a beta-gamma
configuration. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Region
9487 (N21W30) and Region 9493 (N06E25). New regions 9497 (S10E27)
and 9498 (N22E58) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9494 has a good chance of producing an M-class
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. These
disturbed conditions are a result of a high speed stream that is now
tapering off.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
likely at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 163
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  170/170/170
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  019/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01