:Product: 20010611RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest events of the period were the successive C5 and C7 x-ray bursts at 11/0451Z and 11/0552Z respectively. These events appeared to be associated with activity on the SE limb near new Region 9501 (S14E69), and a filament eruption south of Region 9488 (S19W45). CME's were observed with both events, but did not appear earthbound. Region 9494 (S08W69) was responsible for some minor C-class activity, but though maintaining moderate complexity and size, flare output has decreased considerably. Three new regions were numbered today - Regions 9499 (N18E17), 9500 (N10E71), and 9501, making a total of 15 spot groups on the visible disk.. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A small chance for an M-class flare exist in several regions, primarily in Region 9494. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons were at moderate levels for the latter half of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun Class M 40/40/30 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jun 162 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 007/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 008/010-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01