:Product: 20010613RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity reached high levels. Newly numbered Region 9502 (S26E58) produced an M7/1n flare and CME at 13/1142Z. An M2/Sf flare was also observed earlier in the period from this region. Limb proximity still inhibits a thorough analysis, but the region appears to be a relatively small, moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. Region 9489 (N20W55) produced a number of C-class flares including a C3 with Type II sweep (450 km/s) at 13/0827Z, a C9/Sf with Type II (680 km/s) at 13/1628Z, and an impulsive C7/Sf at 13/1957Z. New Regions 9503 (N13E68), and 9504 (N06E76) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class flares are possible from Regions 9502 and 9589. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Occasional active periods were observed during local nighttime hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active period are again likely at higher latitudes during local nighttime hours. III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jun 181 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01