:Product: 20010614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9489 (N20W69) produced today's largest event, a C6/Sf at 0943
UTC. This event was time-associated with a partial halo coronal mass
ejection. There are currently 17 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, and there was an overall growth trend during the day. Growth
was particularly noteworthy in regions 9489 (N20W69),  9495
(N06W46), and 9502 (S26E45). Newly assigned regions 9505 (N22E73 -
Carrington 126) and 9506 (N17E79 - Carrington 120) rotated into view
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Regions 9489 and 9502 are
considered to be the most likely sources for energetic events. There
is a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. An increase
to unsettled to slightly active is possible on the third day in
response to a possible glancing blow from today's CME event.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 195
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  195/195/200
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  005/010-010/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/15