:Product: 20010614RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Region 9489 (N20W69) produced today's largest event, a C6/Sf at 0943 UTC. This event was time-associated with a partial halo coronal mass ejection. There are currently 17 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, and there was an overall growth trend during the day. Growth was particularly noteworthy in regions 9489 (N20W69), 9495 (N06W46), and 9502 (S26E45). Newly assigned regions 9505 (N22E73 - Carrington 126) and 9506 (N17E79 - Carrington 120) rotated into view today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the next three days. Regions 9489 and 9502 are considered to be the most likely sources for energetic events. There is a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. An increase to unsettled to slightly active is possible on the third day in response to a possible glancing blow from today's CME event. III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun Class M 65/65/65 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jun 195 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 195/195/200 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 005/010-010/010-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/30 Minor storm 10/15/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/35 Minor storm 10/15/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/15