:Product: 20010616RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9506 (N17E61) produced today's largest event, a C9/1f at 15/2226 UTC. This region has rotated more fully into view as a relatively large, bright sunspot group with mixed magnetic polarities. Substantial growth was observed in Region 9503 (N13E33) but no flares were reported during the last 24 hours. Region 9502 (S25E19) showed slow growth and was observed to produce a C5/Sf flare at 2010 UTC. Region 9495 (N06W73) displayed growth and enhanced plage today and produced occasional subflares. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with the main flare-producing regions being 9502 and 9506, although regions 9495 and 9503 may also contribute to the activity. There is a slight chance for a major flare event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began yesterday at 1750 UTC attained a maximum of 26 PFU at 16/0005 UTC and ended today at 1210 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be active tomorrow in possible response to recent CME activity observed on the 13th and the 14th. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the second and third days of the forecast. III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun Class M 70/70/70 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jun 208 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 205/205/210 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 172 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 006/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 020/020-010/012-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/10/05