:Product: 20010619RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels. Isolated, optically uncorrelated, low-level C-class x-ray flares occurred. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity 650 km/sec) occurred at 19/0335 UTC. Regions 9503 (N15W07) and 9506 (N18E20) each possessed a minor degree of magnetic complexity, but were stable through the period. The remaining regions were simply-structured and stable. New Region 9509 (S10W03) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare during the period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods early on the first day. III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jun 195 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 190/190/190 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 025/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 010/012-007/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01