:Product: 20010620RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503 (N16W20) produced a C4/1f flare at 20/2044 UTC. It was the largest active region on the disk and maintained a minor degree of magnetic complexity. Region 9506 (N19E08) was stable and showed signs of gradual decay. Region 9501 (S13W50) produced a C4/Sf flare at 19/2326 UTC associated with a CME that was not Earth-directed. This region showed no significant changes during the period and remained a moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group. New Regions 9510 (S06W35) and 9511 (N11E53) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare will be possible during the period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole effects. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period with brief active periods possible during the first day as coronal hole effects subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jun 199 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 195/190/190 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 012/013-010/011-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01