:Product: 20010621RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503 (N16W33) produced isolated C-class subflares. Flux emergence occurred within the interior spots of this region and a magnetic delta configuration may have developed in the trailer portion of the group as well. Region 9504 (N08W28) produced isolated C-class subflares during the period. Regions 9503 and 9504 appeared to be linked magnetically. Both regions share a common neutral line and have exhibited some sympathetic flare activity. Region 9506 (N19W04) maintained a mild mixing of polarities and was stable through the period. New Regions 9512 (S23E31) and 9513 (N21E76) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9503 could produce an M-class flare during the period. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels during 22 June. Normal to moderate fluxes are expected during the rest of the period. III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jun 200 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010/010-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01