:Product: 20010623RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 9511 (N10E13) became extremely active during the period, producing several C-class events, three M-class events, and an impulsive X1/1b flare at 23/0408 UTC. Although still a relatively small region, 9511 has quickly developed into a 22-spot Dao group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 9503 (N16W61) was also active during the period, producing several optical subflares and an M6/1n event at 22/2222 UTC. Three new regions were numbered: 9514 (N12E54), 9515 (S06E46), and 9516 (N12E70). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Several regions have the potential to produce minor M-class events and Region 9411 could continue to produce isolated M and X-class events. EIT imagery shows a potentially active region beginning to rotate onto the disk in the northeast quadrant. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Jun 206 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/010-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01