:Product: 20010624RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jun 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels. The largest event being an optically uncorrelated C6 at 24/0455 UTC. Region 9511 (N10E00), after producing an X-class flare and three M-class events on 22-23 June, has shown a dramatic decrease in activity and has deteriorated to a simple beta magnetic classification. Only two minor C-class events were produced by Region 9511 today. Region 9503 (N15W75) still retains a beta-gamma classification, but has only produced a minor C-class event during the period. Regions 9512 (S22W09) and 9513 (N23E44) have increased in area and spot count but have not produced any significance activity yet. No new regions were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for the first two days of the period. Isolated active conditions, especially at higher latitudes, may occur on the third day due to a favorably positioned coronal hole and the resulting high speed stream impacting earth. III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jun 195 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/010-008/010-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01