:Product: 20010708RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 9531 (S06E19) produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C3/Sf at 08/1619 UTC. This region has emerged rapidly over the past 24 hours, presently comprised of 13 spots in a Dao beta-gamma configuration. The second largest event of the day, an optically uncorrelated C2 flare at 08/1141 UTC, appears per SOHO/EIT imagery to have originated from Region 9530 (S20W52). Region 9532 (N09W46) was also numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 9531 is a likely source of additional C-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period observed at Boulder during 08/0600-0900 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated active periods may also occur due to transient fluctuations in the IMF and moderate elevations of solar wind speed. III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul Class M 15/20/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jul 126 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 130/140/145 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01