:Product: 20010709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The largest event of the
period was an optically uncorrelated  C3 flare at 09/0542 UTC.
Other C-class flares were produced throughout the period by Region
9531 (S06E07), the largest being a C2/Sf at 09/0046 UTC.  New Region
9533 (S09E29) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  Region 9531 and returning regions expected on
the east limb may be potential sources of isolated moderate activity
within the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  A single
period of minor storm occurred at Boulder during 09/0000-0300 UTC.
Conditions trended toward predominantly quiet levels later in the
day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    20/25/30
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 130
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  135/140/145
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  008/008-008/008-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01