:Product: 20010709RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 09/0542 UTC. Other C-class flares were produced throughout the period by Region 9531 (S06E07), the largest being a C2/Sf at 09/0046 UTC. New Region 9533 (S09E29) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. Region 9531 and returning regions expected on the east limb may be potential sources of isolated moderate activity within the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A single period of minor storm occurred at Boulder during 09/0000-0300 UTC. Conditions trended toward predominantly quiet levels later in the day. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul Class M 20/25/30 Class X 01/01/05 Proton 01/01/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jul 130 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01