:Product: 20010710RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 9531 (S06W08) produced a B4/Sf flare at 10/0710 UTC. The only other flare of note was an optically uncorrelated B7 at 10/1225 UTC. Two newly numbered regions rotated into view on the east limb today: 9534 (N18E68) and 9535 (N11E76). Both appear simply structured and remained quiescent today, as did the other numbered regions on the visible disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jul 130 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 008/010-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01