:Product: 20010713RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low conditions. Regions 9533 (S09W26) and 9539 (S19E11) produced sporadic minor activity during the period. Two new regions were numbered: 9540 (N13E42) and 9541 (N16E69). Overall, the sun was mostly quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue to be very low to low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated active conditions may be possible, starting on the third day, due to a potentially favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Jul 133 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 008/010-008/010-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01