:Product: 20010714RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9539 (S18W02) produced sporadic minor C-class events, the largest being a C2/Sf flare at 14/0430 UTC. Region 9539 has shown significant growth in area and spot count and has also developed into a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 9541 (N18E54) also produced optical subflares during the period. The remainder of the disk and limbs were mostly quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels. If Region 9539 continues to develop into a more complex spot group, it could be capable of producing isolated M-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with active conditions occurring between 14/0000 and 14/0600 UTC. This was probably the result of a passing transient solar wind disturbance. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to active with isolated periods possible on 16-17 July, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jul 141 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 151 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/011-012/013-012/013 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01