:Product: 20010714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9539 (S18W02) produced
sporadic minor C-class events, the largest being a C2/Sf flare at
14/0430 UTC. Region 9539 has shown significant growth in area and
spot count and has also developed into a beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 9541 (N18E54) also produced optical subflares
during the period. The remainder of the disk and limbs were mostly
quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels. If Region 9539 continues to develop into a more
complex spot group, it could be capable of producing isolated
M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with active
conditions occurring between 14/0000 and 14/0600 UTC. This was
probably the result of a passing transient solar wind disturbance.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active with isolated periods possible
on 16-17 July, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 141
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  140/140/145
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 151
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  008/011-012/013-012/013
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01