:Product: 20010715RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 9539 (S18W15) produced an M1/Sf flare at 14/2133 UTC. Region 9539 was by far, the most active region on the visible disk. It also produced a C7/1f flare and a C6/Sf flare during the period. This regions rapid growth has somewhat stabilized for the time being. However, it continues to posses a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Other regions of note were 9533 (S08W54) and newly numbered regions 9542 (N06E66) and 9543 (S24E71), all of which produced optical subflares during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels. Region 9539 is capable of producing isolated M-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels during the first two days of the forecast period, due to possible coronal hole effects. Conditions should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on the third day. III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jul 142 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 012/013-012/013-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01