:Product: 20010716RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate with a single M1/1n at 16/0320 UTC from Region 9539 (S18W29). The remainder of the period saw a number of weak C-class flares, the majority of which were also from Region 9539. New Regions 9544 (N13W14), 9545 (N09E22), and 9546 (S17E60) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain predominantly low with isolated M flares possible from Region 9539 . IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the first two days of the period due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. The field should diminish to quiet to unsettled by day three. III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jul 150 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 016/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 012/013-010/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 00/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01