:Product: 20010717RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C2/Sf flare from Region 9539 (S18W42) at 17/1024 UTC. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speeds reached 600 to 700 km/s due to high-speed streaming from a recurrent coronal hole. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active during the forecast period. The effects of the coronal hole will diminish over day one. This will be followed by a brief interlude while another coronal hole moves into a geo-effective position for the second and third days. III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jul 146 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 010/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01