:Product: 20010718RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare. Although there are thirteen numbered regions on the disk, none of them show any outstanding complexity. Region 9539 (S19W58), which has been the most active and complex region for the last 5 days, decayed dramatically. New Regions 9547 (S16W22), 9548 (N17E50), 9549 (S04E57), and 9550 (N08E38) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet with occasional unsettled conditions at high latitudes. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jul 143 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010/010-010/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01