:Product: 20010720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9546 (S16E04) produced
today's only C-class event, a C1/Sf at 19/2345 UTC. Region 9542
(S22E08) showed some growth today, and is currently the largest
region on the disk, but was stable. Region 9548 (N17E25) also showed
some emerging flux, but could only muster one Sf flare. Two
filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours, one in the northeast
near N13E15, and the other in the northwest near N36W16.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 143
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 158
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  010/011-010/008-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05