:Product: 20010720RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9546 (S16E04) produced today's only C-class event, a C1/Sf at 19/2345 UTC. Region 9542 (S22E08) showed some growth today, and is currently the largest region on the disk, but was stable. Region 9548 (N17E25) also showed some emerging flux, but could only muster one Sf flare. Two filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours, one in the northeast near N13E15, and the other in the northwest near N36W16. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jul 143 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 010/011-010/008-010/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05