:Product: 20010722RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. X-ray emission remained below C-level during the past 24 hours. Region 9543 (S22W19) remains the largest group on the disk and showed slight growth in some of the middle spots. Region 9545 (N09W57) showed some growth but was very stable and quiet. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. There is, however, a very slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 9543. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes declined from high levels at 21/2325 UTC and remained below this threshold for the remainder of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. A slight increase to unsettled with a possibility for isolated active periods is predicted for the second and third days due to coronal hole effects. III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Jul 140 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 157 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 007/010-012/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/35 Minor storm 10/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/35/35 Minor storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/05