:Product: 20010724RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. Region 9543 (S23W44) produced isolated B- and C-class subflares as it continued to gradually increase in area. It remained moderate-sized with a minor degree of magnetic complexity. The remaining regions were mostly small, stable, and simply structured. New Regions 9554 (N16W61) and 9555 (S08E54) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There will be a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9543. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred during 24/1200 - 1500 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels during 25 - 26 July. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 27 July. III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Jul 133 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 156 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 012/015-012/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05