:Product: 20010727RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 9543 (S25W82) produced an isolated C-class subflare. This region remained moderate-sized with a slight degree of magnetic complexity as it began to cross the west limb. The remaining regions were unremarkable. New Region 9559 (S25E14) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels late in the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels early in the period. III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Jul 121 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/008-008/008-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01