:Product: 20010728RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jul 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only two C-class events occurred during the period. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C7 flare at 28/1353 UTC. The most magnetically complex region on the disk, 9543 (S23W89) will rotate over the western limb during the next day. The rest of the regions were unremarkable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with a single period of unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV flux can be expected to reach moderate to high levels during the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Jul 116 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01