:Product: 20010802RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity increased, but remained at low levels. Region 9563 (N25E33) grew at a rapid pace and produced occasional C-class subflares, including a C4/Sf at 02/1613 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Minor growth occurred in Regions 9557 (S20W15), 9564 (N14W54), and 9566 (N16E50), each of which produced isolated subflares. Region 9566 also produced a C2/Sf flare at 02/1238 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Gradual decay was noted in Region 9561 (S13E24), which produced an isolated C-class subflare early in the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar actrivity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9563 could produce an isolated M-class flare, especially if its present rate of growth continues. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 03 - 04 August due to an expected CME passage associated with filament disappearances on 31 July. Activity is expected to decline to unsettled levels on 05 August. III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Aug 121 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 020/020-015/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor storm 20/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 45/35/30 Minor storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/05