:Product: 20010802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity increased, but remained at low levels.
Region 9563 (N25E33) grew at a rapid pace and produced occasional
C-class subflares, including a C4/Sf at 02/1613 UTC associated with
a Type II radio sweep. Minor growth occurred in Regions 9557
(S20W15), 9564 (N14W54), and 9566 (N16E50), each of which produced
isolated subflares. Region 9566 also produced a C2/Sf flare at
02/1238 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Gradual decay was
noted in Region 9561 (S13E24), which produced an isolated  C-class
subflare early in the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar actrivity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9563 could produce an isolated
M-class flare, especially if its present rate of growth continues.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 03 -
04 August due to an expected CME passage associated with filament
disappearances on 31 July. Activity is expected to decline to
unsettled levels on 05 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 121
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  125/130/130
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 149
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  020/020-015/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/30
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05