:Product: 20010803RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 9563 (N24E15) produced an M1/Sn at 03/0307Z. Rapid growth was noted in this region's size and complexity over the past 36 hours. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Regions 9557 (S21W26), 9561 (S13E10), and newly numbered Region 9567 (S15W02). New Region 9568 (S19W50) was also numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels. Region 9563 possesses good potential for another small M-class flare. Isolated C-class flare activity is possible from several regions on the visible disk. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions prevailed before a shock impacted ACE at 03/0626Z. This shock was likely associated with the filament eruption and CME on 31 July. The impact was relatively weak with no significant southward Bz, consequently, only isolated active periods were observed. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods likely. III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Aug 132 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 012/012-010/015-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05