:Product: 20010806RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W64) produced an M4/1N flare at 05/2224 UTC. Growth in the region has slowed but it maintains moderate sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Regions 9563 (N23W21), 9566 (N17W08), and 9570 (S10E61) also generated C-class subflares. New Region 9571 (N05E78) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. C-class flares should continue and M-class activity is possible in a number of active Regions, most notably 9557, 9563, and 9566. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under the influence of disturbed solar wind conditions that included sustained southward IMF. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Aug 164 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 013/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 015/015-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 02/02/02 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 02/02/02