:Product: 20010807RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 9557 (S20W78) produced an M1/Sf flare at 07/0737 UTC as well as several C-class subflares throughout the past day. The sunspot group maintains moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 9563 (N24W34) also produced C-class subflare activity. New Region 9572 (N16E23) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9557 is the most likely candidate for M-class activity and may produce an isolated major flare before it rotates around the west limb. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Aug 166 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 014/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/010-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01