:Product: 20010810RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Aug 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9562 (N05W82) produced a C8/Sf event at 10/0136 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. A new region was numbered today as Region 9575 (S03E04). The LASCO images from yesterday observed a partial halo coronal mass ejection. The possible cause was a North-South filament channel eruption observed on EIT images at 10/0936 UTC close to central meridian. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible from several regions on the disk. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 10/1020 UTC with a peak flux observed at 10/1635 UTC of 17 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The actual source of the event is not currently known as several possibilities exists. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 August. Disturbed conditions are expected on 12th and 13th of August due to a high speed coronal hole flow with minor to major storm conditions possible as a result of the CME on 09 August. The greater than 10 MeV protons should remain enhanced through the period with a chance of exceeding threshold on 12 August due to the CME passage. III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug Class M 50/40/30 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Aug 160 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 150 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/010-040/040-030/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/40/20 Minor storm 05/30/15 Major-severe storm 01/20/10 B. High Latitudes Active 20/45/30 Minor storm 05/35/20 Major-severe storm 01/20/15